DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/08 11:29

DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/08 11:29

   Soybeans Higher at Midday

   Trade is mostly higher at midday with light upside momentum.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed. The interest rate products are 
higher. The dollar index is 24 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up 
0.30. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher and cattle lower. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $36.  

   CORN

   Corn trade is fractionally higher at midday and near the daily high of a 
very slow session; the trading range has only been 3 cents. The gains yesterday 
have us within a few pennies of the 6-month higher. Spillover support from 
beans is noted at midday. The weekly EIA report has ethanol up 2 to 3 cents a 
gallon which is giving midday support. Stocks were up though, up 0.98% on the 
week with production down .57% on a 7% increase in gasoline usage week over 
week. The February USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are due 
out in about 24 hours. This is not getting talked about as a major report, but 
this is when some small unexpected change could give us some volatility. The 
domestic carryout is expected to come in slightly lower at 2.335 billion versus 
2.355 billion bushels on the January report. On the March corn chart support is 
the 10-day and 20-day at $3.64 with the $3.71 recent high chart resistance.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with nearby stronger versus 
new crop. Meal is up $3.50 and bean oil is up 50 points. The trade is looking 
for a slight reduction in the domestic carryover tomorrow; down to 410 million 
bushels versus 420 on the January report. China should continue to be active 
this week. The wet areas of South American are expected to stay wet, with drier 
areas catching some rain again at the end of the week. November soybeans 
continue to hold above $10 and are now back above all major moving averages 
with the 20-day at $10.19 the highest which is chart support. March beans are 
also above its 20-day at $10.47 which is bringing in some chart buying at 
midday. The $10.80 six-month high printed last month is the next major notable 
resistance area, so let's not be surprised to see some volatility this 
afternoon.  

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is a penny lower on Chicago, a penny higher on Kansas City and 2 
higher on Minneapolis at midday in slow trade. The dollar bounced back 
yesterday and remains above 100 this morning. The trade is not looking for the 
USDA report to do much but remind everyone of large stocks, but if a trend of 
reducing the carryovers could get started, that may help the bull argument this 
month.  The western belt is still short moisture. The report is expected to 
have the domestic carryout at 1.179 billion bushels versus 1.186 last month. On 
the March Kansas City contract support is at the 50-day at $4.25 with 
resistance at the $4.40 20-day.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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