Portland Grain Review 10/12

                                                       October 12, 2018
                                   Portland Price Trends
                 10-01-17    01-01-18    09-01-18    010-05-18    10-12-18
#1 SWW (bu)         5.35        5.32        6.05        6.20        6.23
White Club          5.40        5.32        6.05        6.20        6.23
DNS 14%             7.41        7.52        6.84        6.91        6.96
HRW 11.5%           5.79        5.60        6.53        6.49        6.53
#2 Corn (ton)     141.00      157.00      156.00      158.00      165.00
#2 Barley         125.00      128.00      140.00      140.00      140.00

   Wheat...West coast white wheat markets closed the week right at marketing
year highs, drawing continued support from a smaller crop in Australia which
has stimulated demand for U.S. white wheat.  Drought has diminished the wheat
crop in Western Australia to the lowest level in 11 years and USDA lowered
overall production to 18.5 mmt in its monthly report this week.  
   Weekly Sales..Overall U.S. wheat export demand slipped over the past week,
coming in 30% below the four-week average.  Sales of 12.5 mb put current year
sales at 428 mb, which is 17% below a year ago and 20% below the pace of the
past five years. Top seller was hard red spring with 4.1 mb, putting sales at
129 mb, which lags year ago levels by 8% and 11% under the five-year average.
Hard red winter saw 3.2 mb in sales and with 124 mb sets more than 30% behind
both last year and the average pace.  Soft white secured another 2.6 mb last
week and sets with 109 mb in commitments; 10% behind last year but 20% above
average. Soft red winter also had another relatively good week with 2.9 mb.
   Relative Values...USDA revealed world buyers continue to acknowledge the 
relative price disparity between classes of U.S. wheat, with hard red spring
again seeing relatively good export demand last week. West coast prices show 
dark northern spring at a 50 cent premium to hard red winter and at 70 cents
premiums to soft white. A year ago, those spreads were showing dark northern
spring at a more typical $1.70 premium to hard red winter and $2 premium to
soft white wheat.
                                          -Norm Ruhoff  Contributing Analyst

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