“There’ll likely be near average precipitation and temperatures this spring.”
Everything considered weather is the most talked about subject there is.
Yet, there’s really nothing that can be done about it, other than be prepared for what might occur.
Weather forecasts are the most listened to airwave programs. The weatherman gets ridiculed more than the president and sports referees.
Sometimes the weatherman’s right and just about as often his forecast is wrong.
Weather forecasting is far from an exact science.
That was the certain statement presented by weatherman Dan Holiday at a Farm Profit Seminar in Overbrook.
Raised on an El Dorado farm, Holiday was interested in weather forecasting from an early age developing his own barnyard radio station serving Butler County listeners.
Pursuing youthful interests into lifetime career, Holiday today owns The Storm Report business forecasting weather on airwaves throughout the country, including 580 WIBW and affiliate stations in the Midwest.
Two questions are always asked weatherman Holiday.
“How cold and snowy will it be this winter?”
“What kind of severe weather season are we going to have?”
Size and of color of wooly worms are not a predictor, despite certain farmers swearing so. They’re always plump and changing tones.
The Farmer’s Almanac got an “F” for predicting early winter severity this year.
So, what’s Holiday’s “2017 Weather Outlook?”
“We can watch weather patterns, which can give a general outlook,” Holiday clarified.
“However, long range outlooks cannot give you long range rain and snow amounts, or how many tornadoes you will have,” the weatherman admitted.
Everybody was warned about severe ice conditions in Kansas January 13 through the 15th, Holiday reflected. Grocery stores were sold low on food staples, and some hardware stores ran out of generators as people prepared for the storms weathermen, including Holiday, forecasted.
“The ice didn’t materialize in eastern Kansas, although western Kansas had extensive ice and damage,” Holiday confessed.
Weather balloons have been a common source of tracking conditions for more than a century and are still used with computer models to predict weather.
Holiday has three mains sources of acquiring weather data. The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) has a forecast range up to 84 hours. “It can overdo precipitation forecasts, yet nail difficult forecast that other models miss.”
ECMWF, the Euro Model, is “the most accurate of the global weather models, as it can see smaller scale events. The Euro Model predicted the landfall of Superstorm Sandy,” Holiday said.
Global Forecasting System (GFS) updates four times daily, producing forecasts up to 384 hours in advance. “However, GFS tends to be colder and drier in the winter and doesn’t work too well in the summer,” Holiday clarified.
Cold-air outbreaks have not occurred as often as they do in the Central Plains this year. “Still, number and frequency of cold outbreaks and intensity are very difficult to predict months in advance,” Holiday said.
So far this winter California which had been in a several drought has had significant precipitation from rain and snow storms.
Many conditions comprise weather patterns, and El Nino and La Nina are two of those. Combined with Neutral, they make up three Southern Oscillation (vibration) phases
“La Nina has been weak this winter resulting in warmer weather to the southeast and colder than normal conditions to the northwest,” Holiday analyzed.
“Ocean conditions that influence weather are near average for a neutral spring,” Holiday said.
Last year Topeka had 49.23 inches of precipitation, making the 17th-wettest calendar year on record.
First freeze in Topeka last year was November 9, sixth latest freeze recorded. Hottest day was June 22, when it was 103. Average temperature was 58.1, sixth warmest year on record since 1887.
January precipitation in Topeka was 1.28 inches, compared to an average of .86. January snowfall, at 2.2 inches, compared to the average of 4.9 inches.
Above average temperatures are predicted for the central United States this spring, with the warmest temperatures in the southwest.
The wettest weather forecast this spring is for the northern United States, with below normal in the desert Southwest.
Temperatures are likely to be 30-40 percent above average through spring and early summer, while warmer temperatures persist further south and southwest, Holiday forecasted.
May-June-July precipitation is forecast about average with above average precipitation in Montana and the northern Rockies.
“If 2017 is average, we can expect 3.54 inches of precipitation in April, 4.92 inches in May, and 5.39 inches in June,” Holiday said.
Over the past 25 years, Kansas averaged five tornadoes in March, 13 in April, 36 in May, and 20 in June
“While there’s always an increasing threat of severe weather in late April and May, the number of hail storms, damaging wind events and tornadoes cannot accurately be predicted in long range forecasts,” Holiday emphasized.